Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 44.111430 51.945203 60.513320 70.547293 81.941038 94.441475 109.157265
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 32.242129 42.608778 55.030727 70.867200 90.361133 113.405943 142.526252
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 25.686006 37.168619 51.933465 71.996240 98.191539 130.847478 174.196029
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 19.163110 30.202245 45.355982 67.170372 97.177165 136.347528 190.571329
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 16.423833 27.781857 44.228384 69.022184 104.551830 152.609511 221.293248
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 13.649374 24.752458 41.685714 68.362583 108.087569 163.616425 245.327646
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 12.602420 24.196810 42.639183 72.733186 118.922161 185.158947 284.840592
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.049549 20.698350 38.524959 68.863499 117.118578 188.412997 298.525435
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.095585 19.803064 38.458668 71.252912 124.847115 205.824851 333.332995
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.665009 19.786593 39.833290 76.044440 136.571176 229.728629 378.752759
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.885768 18.965767 39.682417 78.204048 144.141888 247.609211 415.870447
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.037946 17.859967 38.867757 79.093594 149.608643 262.405630 448.841911
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.793555 15.812242 36.263179 76.970272 150.583994 271.302408 475.035731
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.967723 14.531577 34.997954 77.222634 155.781487 287.538353 514.098662
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.354737 13.605495 34.297707 78.426143 162.685546 306.907967 559.105895
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.339676 11.410809 30.566023 73.238262 157.513565 305.591308 570.149282
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.995759 10.895427 30.422979 75.228984 165.738707 327.555505 620.772129
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.534205 9.921616 29.069294 74.519930 168.718076 340.458082 656.620965
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.429002 9.986034 30.191056 79.216710 182.510650 373.197179 727.778824
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.904109 8.570455 27.434874 75.058400 178.392704 373.418954 742.541752
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.747907 8.334963 27.650983 77.626337 188.035886 399.236885 803.271561
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.704647 8.490854 28.927712 82.772915 203.319642 436.192677 885.173985
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.558495 8.224438 29.012185 85.091326 212.806850 462.668413 949.236506